indication
as of 2026-07-01Schizophrenia
Competitive landscape projected to A4i Intervention’s launch window
Competitive set
35
16 approved · 19 pipeline
US prevalence (implied people)
655K–3.1M
range across 5 sourced estimates
Projection timeline
actual past → guided future · protection walls overlaid
171 events
2020
2024
2028
2032
2036
2040
2044
2048
today
A4i Intervention launch window
guided / estimated ↑
actual ↓
focal / guidedapprovallabel expansiontrial readoutcongressnclustered events (click to expand)guided (dashed = directional)competitor patent cliff
Competitive set
resolved drugs with trials in this indicationdrugRecruiting
US-approved 1993 · RISPERDAL
Phase 4249 trials
Protection2042
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2002 · ABILIFY
Phase 4179 trials
Protection2041
drugRecruiting
US-approved 1996 · ZYPREXA Intramuscular
Phase 4174 trials
Protection2041
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2006 · Erzofri extended-release
Phase 4139 trials
OwnerJohnson & Johnson
Protection2041
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2001 · Geodon
Phase 460 trials
Protection—
drugRecruiting
US-approved 1989 · Clozaril
Phase 451 trials
Protection2028
drugCompleted
US-approved 2010 · Latuda
Phase 440 trials
Protection2031
drugCompleted
US-approved 1986 · Haldol Decanoate
Phase 435 trials
Protection—
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2015 · Rexulti
Phase 432 trials
Protection2033
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2024 · Cobenfy
Phase 422 trials
Protection2039
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2009 · FANAPT
Phase 414 trials
Protection2031
drugRecruiting
US-approved 2019 · CAPLYTA
Phase 412 trials
Protection2040
drugCompleted
US-approved 2016 · NUPLAZID
Phase 36 trials
Protection2039
drugRecruiting
Pipeline · Phase 3
Phase 324 trials
Protection—
drugCompleted
Pipeline · Phase 4
Phase 414 trials
Protection—
drugCompleted
Pipeline · Phase 4
Phase 411 trials
Protection—
drugActive Not Recruiting
Pipeline · Phase 2
Phase 210 trials
Protection—
drugCompleted
Pipeline · Phase 2
Phase 26 trials
Protection—
drugCompleted
Pipeline · Phase 4
Phase 44 trials
Protection—
drugCompleted
Pipeline · Phase 4
Phase 43 trials
Protection—
drugCompleted
Pipeline · Phase 3
Phase 31 trial
Protection—
Market size
prevalence as a range, not a number
US prevalence envelope (implied people)
655K – 3.1M
spans ~4.8× by case definition — each source below
US prevalence range (household/clinical/records)0.25–0.64%
under-counts institutionalized/incarcerated/homeless; schizophrenia often combined with other psychotic disorders
international non-institutionalized prevalence0.33–0.75%
international, non-institutionalized
lifetime prevalence base case0.72–1.19%
lifetime, includes schizoaffective (F25)
schizophrenia-spectrum, adults 18-651.2%
spectrum (broader than schizophrenia alone)
commonly-cited US figure0.9%
round-number industry convention
Treated-addressable funnel
diagnosed fraction assumption0.7
treated addressable people estimate1,008,000
treated fraction assumption0.6
us prevalence range pct[object Object]
Every factor is shown, not hidden. The funnel is derived (inferred), so it exposes its assumptions rather than inheriting false precision.
Standard of care
treatment guidelines
CG178
National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) · UK · reviewed 2025-07-29
- first-episode treatmentoral antipsychotic + psychological intervention (family + CBT) offered together
- antipsychotic choiceno single antipsychotic preferred; choice is shared decision driven by side-effect profile across 5 dimensions
- side-effect dimensionsmetabolic (weight/diabetes), extrapyramidal (akathisia/dyskinesia/dystonia), cardiovascular (QT), hormonal (prolactin), subjective experience
- at-risk / preventiondo NOT offer antipsychotics to prevent psychosis or to at-risk individuals
- therapeutic trialtreat as explicit individual trial; start low end of licensed range, titrate up; 4-6 week trial at optimal dose
APA 2020
American Psychiatric Association (APA) · US
- pharmacotherapy[1A]treat with an antipsychotic and monitor effectiveness + side effects
- continuation[2B]continue the SAME antipsychotic if symptoms improved
- agent selection[n/a]NO preference between first- and second-generation; select on side-effect profile, formulation availability, drug-drug interactions, metabolism
- treatment-resistant[1B]clozapine for treatment-resistant schizophrenia, or substantial suicide/aggression risk
- long-acting injectable[2B]LAI if patient prefers, or history of poor/uncertain adherence